Feckless do-gooderism

So the Europeans did it again. Their (notice the judgemental statement there) International Criminal Court indicted Omar al-Bashir, the ruler of Sudan, for crimes against humanity. This had the entirely predictable result that he kicked out many of the largest humanitarian organizations in Sudan. These organizations are responsible on a day to day basis for the care and feeding of millions of Sudanese.

Once again we see the truth of the old saying "The road to hell is paved with good intentions". The idea that a court in Europe can indict an evil man, who happens to run a country, and there will be no negative consequences is wishful thinking of the worst sort. In the name of justice the court has induced untold suffering. Not only is Bashir not an inch closer to The Hague, but exactly the kind of treatment to the people of Darfur that the court claims it wants to punish, has been encouraged on an even larger scale.

A court which is not backed up by force is powerless. This is as true in Denver Colorado as it is in the world as a whole. The main backers of the court have shown, over the last twenty years, an amazing capacity to talk the talk but not to walk the walk. Despite the overwhelming evidence that "soft power" only works where the countries involved all have the same interests, they continue to rely on that as a way to change the world to be what they want it to be.

By removing the last incentive to even pretend to cooperate from the Sudanese government, the court has guaranteed exactly the suffering that it claims to want to punish. While the government of Sudan is responsible for its actions, those actions were entirely predictable. When you throw gasoline on a fire you can't blame the fire for exploding.

The world would be a better place if people would work with it the way it is and not the way they wish it was. In order to make change you have to start from a realistic assessment of what tools you have and what you are trying to accomplish.

PREDICTION - Bashir will not only kick out the NGO's but also the African Union peace keepers. The bad situation in Darfur will get worse. Bashir will not leave Sudan, putting himself in a position to be grabbed by the feckless Europeans. America will continue to not involve itself militarily in a third Muslim country and Africa and Europe, in the near term will continue to wring their hands incompetently.